The occupier demand story has always been key to the mid-box market but, as demand remains robust and the speculative pipeline remains down 40% from its peak, the supply picture is becoming increasingly constrained. 

What is happening in the occupier market?

In our recent prime mid-box report, which covers units between 20,000 and 100,000 sq ft in eight key UK markets, take-up in the first half of 2026 remained resilient at 3.25 million sq ft, up 15% on H1 2025. However, when looking at the supply side, available supply totalled 8.38 million sq ft across 178 units, down 1% on Q1 2026 and 14% year-on-year. This equates to 1.48 years of supply and indicates that the market appears currently balanced. But, with take-up remaining resilient, a shortage of prime space could emerge over the next few years.

How constrained is the current supply?

Taking a deeper dive, we see that the availability of units below 60,000 sq ft could become especially limited, with only 1.3 years of supply (15 months) left (see graph below). Units over 60,000 sq ft currently have around two years' worth of supply, but availability remains relatively constrained with the current level of occupier demand. Even when accounting for a speculative pipeline of 2.6 million sq ft, including over 1.2 million sq ft of units below 40,000 sq ft, supply remains restricted, particularly as most space won’t reach practical completion for some time.  

For occupiers, the challenge is not only finding space but finding space that meets evolving operational and ESG requirements in the right location. For developers, constrained availability and a limited pipeline present opportunities to bring forward new stock in core logistics locations.

Supply in the prime mid-box market:

A regional focus

Below the headline stats, each regional market has its own localised supply and demand dynamics. The West Midlands, M27 Corridor and Leeds markets have less than one year’s worth of supply available, leaving occupiers with limited choice; in the latter prime supply fell by 45% in Q2 2026. Manchester and Newcastle, meanwhile, recorded declines of 28% and 27% respectively. In these markets, occupiers may need to begin their searches earlier or consider more locations.

At the other end of the scale, London has around four years of supply available. This level of availability should be viewed in context: London’s take-up in Q2 rebounded significantly, indicating a resilient occupier market and suggesting that supply could begin to fall very shortly.

Supply pressures could become more pronounced as the development pipeline continues to slow. Five out of eight key markets recorded a continued fall in space under construction, limiting the volume of new stock and creating opportunities for well-located developments where demand remains robust.

Will we see a shortage of prime space?

While there remains sufficient supply to support current occupier demand, the slowdown in development and continued positive take-up are steadily absorbing available stock. As a result, competition for modern, sustainable and well-located units is likely to intensify, particularly in markets where availability is already limited. The consequence is likely to be continued rental growth across much of the prime mid-box market, driven not only by demand, but increasingly by a shortage of the right space in the right locations.

Further information

Contact Kiran Bhalla

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